1. Washington Wizards
Diagnosis: The Wizards' roster was left in shambles even before the unpredictable Gilbert Arenas decided to bring firearms into the workplace. His 2008 knee injury dealt a significant blow to the up-and-coming squad headlined by Arenas, Antawn Jamison, and Caron Butler that made four straight playoff appearances from 2004-05 through 2007-08. Without Arenas' pinball-like scoring in the lineup, the group's lack of depth showed its ugly face and the team flopped, winning all of 19 games in 2008-09. To be fair, with the Arenas-dependent roster GM Ernie Grunfeld had assembled the coaching carousel of Eddie Jordan, Ed Tapscott, and Flip Saunders never really had a chance. This season the team's front court woes were at least temporarily solved (five Wizards averaged six or more rebounds last season) but a lackluster group of guards spelled, well, 26 wins.
Now with a roster of odds and ends, a max contract's worth in cap room, and the golden ticket to this year's draft, Grunfeld needs to inject the franchise with some stability and fast-- specifically in the backcourt where the team would otherwise feature the duo of Randy Foye and Nick Young should Arenas be unavailable. Yikes. Now that the 2010-11 salary cap is projected to be $56.1, down from 2009-2010's $57.7 but higher than the $50.4 and $53.6 million range that the league mentioned last July, Grunfeld and company will have roughly $20 million in cap space to try to lure one of the second-tier free agents like David Lee or Carlos Boozer. With another post secured for next season, the Wizards would be wise to add a certain electrifying guard with off the charts talent and an uncanny feel for the game.
Prescription: John Wall, G Kentucky
This is the one sure thing about this year's draft. Wall is the magic potion, the type of player you draft regardless of need. Position clash with Arenas? With Wall's rare mix of tangibles (little discussed fact: the 6-4 Wall's wingspan of 6-9.25 at the Combine was over an inch longer than that of 6-7 wing Evan Turner) and intangibles, even a $111 million star like Arenas will have to make adjustments. No question here, the Wizards thank the ping pong ball gods one more time and take the year's No. 1 prospect.
2. Philadelphia 76ers
Diagnosis: Getting the franchise-resurrecting Doug Collins on board was the first good move the Sixers' front office made this season. Taking the safe road in this year's draft should be the second. Yes, Derrick Favors has explosive athlete written all over him, but at this point in the franchise's path back to relevancy it'd be best to get known quantities from winning programs to build the right culture. The Bulls' post-Tim Floyd picks of Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng, and Ben Gordon aren't given enough credit for their impact in the Bulls' resurgence. Had they gone with the higher risk picks of Shaun Livingston or Sebastian Telfair, things would have gone very differently.
Prescription: Evan Turner, F Ohio State
Turner will never become a one-name sensation like Kobe or Lebron. Honesty, though, what they need to do at this point is establish some sort of foundation before they can start adding high-risk pieces like Favors. Proponents of the high-risk approach point to Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor or Rajon Rondo and Randy Foye (who had the sturdy pedigree to Rondo's risk) as high-ceiling players who overshadowed conservative picks. But there are countless examples of failed experiments who are picked higher than their more predictable peers and flop. Tyrus Thomas and LaMarcus Aldridge, Darko Milicic (who had a "higher ceiling") and Carmelo Anthony, Marvin Williams and Andrew Bogut. Read any Top 10 Draft Bust list and you'll get the picture. For this franchise, a failed No. 2 pick is too much to risk, even if it means drafting a player in Turner who would be an awkward fit with current focal point Andre Iguodala. He may not be a home run, but hitting a double down the line might just be the right cure to the Sixers' ails than a risky 18-year-old with limited offensive skill.
3. New Jersey Nets
Diagnosis: Front court depth is a must at this point in the Nets' rebuilding process. The backcourt platoon of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, and Terrence Williams is good enough for now, especially with a Free Agent along the lines of Joe Johnson in GM Rod Thorn's sight. Bolstering the two forward spots opposite blossoming center Brook Lopez should be a priority, and should they draft a guard then look for Thorn to compete with Washington for Boozer and Lee.
Prescription: DeMarcus Cousins
Bloated. Unmotivated. Poor attitude. Cousins has had it all lobbed at him as pundits scrutinize his prospects as an NBA player. Guess what? The Nets finished dead last in scoring last season (92.4), and adding Derrick Favors won't help them out in that department one bit. Lucky for them a rare talent in Cousins is essentially guaranteed to be available at their pick at No. 3. Cousins proved his ability to score and rebound last season at Kentucky, and with a 7-6 wingspan, the red flags that scouts have pinned on him may just get ignored by League GMs. One risk with adding Cousins to the mix in New Jersey is that there isn't a fatherly veteran on the roster to keep Cousins's head on straight should he wander from the straight and narrow. Nevertheless, the Nets would be wise to take the hulking center at this spot even if they end up taking Favors. Cousins and Lopez would give the Nets a Lakerian duo down low that would cause matchup nightmare for smaller Eastern Conference teams.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
Diagnosis: The lowly Timberwolves fell to pick No. 4, but lucky for them there will still be plenty of talent available no matter who gets picked 1-3. With that said, defense was a major issue for the young T'Wolves roster, as the group gave up nearly 108 points a game. Adding a 2 or 3 might make sense given the lack of scoring from wing Corey Brewer and point guard Jonny Flynn, but in this scenario it'd likely be too hard to pass up the draft's most intriguing talent, a player far from a 2 or 3.
Prescription: Derrick Favors, F/C Georgia Tech
Though it is unlikely he will fall this far in the real draft, if he does then it would be a no-brainer for GM David Kahn. Imagining the duo of Favors and Al Jefferson with Kevin Love in the mix should send tingles up the spines of Minnesotans. If nothing else then the lobs from blossoming Jonny Flynn to Favors will make for a regular spot in the Sportscenter Top 10. Wesley Johnson would be a solid fit here as an athletic and rebound-savvy 3, but Favors is the slam dunk to Johnson's finger roll in this case as far as long-term potential.
5. Sacramento Kings
Diagnosis: Lottery picks Spencer Hawes and Jason Thompson haven't found an offensive rhythm yet, and they are starting to look as if they never will. Tyreke Evans looks like a legitimate first scoring option to build around, but other than Carl Landry whose contract expires at the end of the season, the Kings lack a proven scoring threat in the absence of Kevin Martin (who was traded to Houston midway through last season).
Prescription: Wesley Johnson, G/F Syracuse
Al-Farouq Aminu of Wake Forest could also get snatched up by the Kings, as ESPN's Chad Ford predicts in his Mock Draft 3.0. However, if the Kings are wise they will go for Johnson's proven scoring ability and versatility over the unpolished Aminu. Johnson is in fact 22, and Aminu 19, leaving Johnson's potential for growth in question, but starting this franchise on the right patch means they will have to settle for proven players like Johnson, the Big East Player of the Year. They already have gotten burned with Hawes, Donte Greene, and to some extent Thompson. One more soured pick and GM Geoff Petrie could be shown the door, and he knows it.
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